Goals for 2026 H2 against measured actuals from the reporting warehouse. Nothing on this page is typed by hand — the targets are version-controlled and everything else is computed nightly from Sage, Stripe and the product database.
Basis changed · 2026-08-27: Advisory calendar-year revenue no longer counts forward-dated invoices · dictionary
Baseline is the month-end before the push (2026-06-30); blue is what was already recurring, green is what has been added since. Every figure is measured from the warehouse — none of it is hand-entered.
Movement inside the current month, per stream. Monthly figures are annual CARR movement ÷ 12, so they read on the same scale as MRR.
| Stream | Baseline | New | Expansion | Contraction | Churn | Now | Customers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accelerator (net) | $462,550 | $15,200 | $0 | $0 | ($33,600) | $463,100 | 324 |
| Product (effective) | $0 | $8,025 | $3,000 | ($975) | ($1,650) | $58,425 | 209 |
| All-up recurring | $462,550 | $521,525 | 533 | ||||
Accelerator is shown net of discounts here because that is the money recurring; Sage's ARR view is gross. Both are given so finance can tie them. Advisory is calendar-year invoiced revenue from the Sage ledger.
Every figure in the middle column is a number a human typed into the Pipeline Planner. The right column is what the warehouse measures. This is the panel that tells you which assumptions to revise.
| Assumption | Plan | Measured | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product ARPU (list) | $450/mo | $280/mo | At or below plan |
| Product ARPU (effective, after discounts) | — not modelled | $280/mo | What actually bills; the gap to list is the founding discount |
| Paying product accounts | 300 founding | 209 | 70% of the founding cohort |
| Product paid logos | 1,279 target | 209 | 1,070 logos short of the plan |
| Founding promo drag | $67,500/mo | $0/mo | Lower than modelled because there are fewer signups, not less discounting |
| Accelerator ARPU | $1,500/mo | $1,429/mo net | $1,569/mo gross — above plan |
| Advisory value per customer | $15,000 / engagement | $1,731,115 / 74 customers = $23,393 | Materially above plan — engagements are worth more than modelled |
Measured pace is the average monthly change in recurring revenue over the trailing three months. Months-to-goal simply divides what is left by that pace: it assumes no acceleration, so treat it as the floor, not a forecast.
Won/billed counts are measured from Sage. Booking and close rates from the plan are not shown here: meeting-level activity is not yet in the warehouse, so any conversion rate would be a guess dressed as a metric.
Pool sizes are measured from product usage. The plan's conversion-rate steps are not reproduced here, because measuring them requires data the warehouse does not yet hold. Those gaps are listed explicitly rather than left as silent blanks.
| Step | Why not measured |
|---|---|
| Interest → Sign-Up | No web/traffic analytics in the warehouse yet. ANALYTICS.SHARE_INVENTORY (new) lists what the HubSpot share exposes (page views, forms, email events) — the front-of-funnel build designs against that; GA4/ads credentials are the ask to Justin. |
The Planner is the source model for this scorecard. Every one of its elements is listed here with an honest status, so nothing is quietly missing. Statuses live in the goals file and can be changed without touching code.
| Planner element | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Annual goals, baseline, H2 progress | Live | Panel 1, measured instead of hand-entered |
| Totals to hit | Live | Panel 1 |
| Product ARPU | Live | Panel 4 — list and effective, both measured |
| Founding members | Live | Panel 4 — 71 measured against the 300 planned |
| Founding promo drag | Live | Panel 4 — measured from actual coupons |
| Target paid logos | Live | Panel 4 |
| Accelerator ARPU | Live | Panel 4 and 6 — gross and net |
| Advisor revenue per engagement | Live | Panel 6 — measured well above plan |
| Accelerator remaining MRR / accounts to win | Live | Panel 6 |
| Advisor remaining revenue / deals to win | Live | Panel 6 |
| Engine 1 and 2 pool sizes | Live | Panel 7 — usage bands as the measured analogue |
| Sign-Up → Diagnose | Live | Onboarding Funnel report, nightly; reconciles to the product's own funnel within 2 accounts |
| Engine 1 and 2 conversion rates | Coming soon | Needs a few weeks of product-health history to compute conversion out of each pool |
| Install & Run (activation) | Coming soon | Blocked on the KR1 activation definition; candidate-threshold history now accrues nightly in ADOPTION_HISTORY so the ratified definition can be backfilled from its start date |
| Held by engines 1+2 vs required from engine 3 | Coming soon | Engine attribution per new paid logo becomes computable from ADOPTION_HISTORY (nightly account-state panel, accruing since 2026-08-05) once a few weeks exist |
| Booking and close rates (accelerator, advisor) | Not measurable yet | Meeting-level activity is not in the warehouse; any rate would be a guess |
| Interest → Sign-Up, required visitors | Not measurable yet | No web or traffic analytics is collected anywhere we read |
| Scenario presets (Conservative / Base / Stretch) | Planning input | Planning inputs — there is no actual to measure against |
| Required funnel volumes | Planning input | Back-solved from the goal, not an observation |
| Theory of Constraints ranking | Planning input | Recomputable once the engine and funnel rates above are measured |